Why The Brexit most likely will not take place
Updated: Oct 13, 2019
3 September 2019, 19:00
The main factor why the Brexit most likely will not take place according to my personal experience is the simple fact the bureaucratic exitprocedure has already taken over three years while there is still very little clarity and common understanding on a shared consensus between the European Union and the United Kingdom. Even within the government of the UK itself, there is little political stability.
This in combination with the demands of the citizens of the United Kingdom which has been prone to change, doesn’t contribute to support for a pro-Brexit decision. Hereby also plays the fact that a pro-Brexit decision can demand extended negotiations. More recently citizens, in general younger people, are uniting on the streets whereby they protest for a new referendum. A referendum which reverses the Brexit thus undoes the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
The Brexit is starting to show similarities with a bad marriage. It can be fixed however it requires mutual obligations. Currently the United Kingdom has been in an impasse. There is a chance that the United Kingdom opts to stay part of the EU Customs Union, the collaboration whereby the custom rates are set for the EU member states.
This collaboration stems back from 1968 between the six founding states of the European Economic Community, more specifically Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. (EU source: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/history_en)
An intermediate solution, a Soft Brexit so to speak which ensures that companies can keep importing from and exporting goods to the UK.
The House of Commons has voted a no-deal brexit on the 13th of March.
"That this House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement. (UK source: https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/march/house-of-commons-to-vote-on-no-deal-brexit/)"
A Hard Brexit results in the United Kingdom taking back full control over its borders, making new trade deals and applying laws within its own territory. Thus the UK would fall back on the rules of the World Trade Organisation for trading activities with former EU partners.
In a Soft Brexit strong economic ties will be retained, budgetary contributions are obligated and free movement of people is allowed within the European Economic Area (EEA).
In a No-Deal Brexit, the United Kingdom would immediately leave the European Union (EU) withouth an agreement about the "divorce" process.
Government Consulting Advice: This is the solution I suggest:
1. Multiple-choice referendum
Make a referendum where the citizens of the United Kingdom can choose between the scenarios which are approved by the members of The House of Commons.
I.e. Three choices: Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit, Unbrexit
Each scenario needs to be clarified with its concrete implications for the public to be well-informed and able to take a considerate decision.
Hard Brexit (read above)
Soft Brexit (read above) Unbrexit (an undoing of previous negotiations, a recovery of the EU post-Brexit)
Government Consulting Policy Advice:
First there needs to come clarity on the implications of referendums hosted in the UK in general, before advancing towards a new referendum which will potentially provide a final solution. Without clear rules the referendum may not be put into action in the future.
Hereby I candidate to become an external counselor of the European Parlement. My advices are identical to the published articles. No nonsense, better yet clear and strong ideas & creative solutions which leave room for own implementations.
Dobbe Boogaerts is a Belgian freelance-consultant, advisor and entrepreneur who provides Government and Business Consulting Services (GCS & BCS) upon request.
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